How to Make Better Decisions: Frameworks from Experts
In the quiet hours after a boardroom argument or a late-night family discussion, I’ve often found myself staring at the ceiling, replaying a decision that went sideways.
Over more than a decade advising executives, coaching founders, and making my own high-stakes calls in business and life, I’ve learned one hard truth: raw intelligence and good intentions rarely suffice.
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What separates consistently strong outcomes from regret is a handful of disciplined frameworks, drawn from brilliant minds who’ve wrestled with uncertainty at scale.
These aren’t abstract models from textbooks. They’re tools I’ve used in the trenches, where emotions run hot, data is incomplete, and the clock is ticking.
They help cut through noise, reveal blind spots, and build confidence without false certainty. Here are some of the most reliable ones I’ve relied on, with the scars and small wins that taught me their value.
Classifying Decisions: Jeff Bezos’s One-Way and Two-Way Doors
One of the simplest yet most powerful distinctions comes from Jeff Bezos. He separates decisions into one-way doors and two-way doors.
Irreversible choices, the one-way doors, demand slow, deliberate analysis because once you step through, there’s no easy retreat. Reversible ones, the two-way doors, merit faster action since you can course-correct if needed.
Early in my career, I treated every career move like a one-way door, agonizing over minor job shifts until opportunities slipped away. Then I applied Bezos’s lens to a partnership offer that felt risky but recoverable.
I moved quickly, it worked out, and the framework freed mental bandwidth for bigger irreversible calls, like launching my own advisory practice. Most decisions turn out to be two-way doors, yet we overthink them as if they’re permanent. Recognizing that difference alone can accelerate progress without reckless speed.
Avoiding Future Regret: Bezos’s Regret Minimization Framework
Another Bezos-inspired approach that has saved me from emotional traps is the regret minimization framework. When facing a life-altering choice, project yourself at 80 and ask: Will I regret not doing this more than doing it and failing?
Bezos used this to quit his Wall Street job and start Amazon. I borrowed it during a period of burnout, debating whether to step back from high-pressure clients. Imagining my older self regretting a life of constant exhaustion over a temporary income dip made the decision clear.
It wasn’t painless, but it prevented deeper regret. This long-view question shifts focus from immediate discomfort to what truly compounds over decades.
Gaining Perspective Over Time: Suzy Welch’s 10/10/10 Rule
For personal decisions clouded by short-term feelings, Suzy Welch’s 10/10/10 rule has been a quiet lifesaver. Ask how you’ll feel about the choice in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years.
A few years ago, I nearly accepted a lucrative speaking gig that required extensive travel right after my daughter’s school play season started. In 10 minutes, I’d feel flattered. In 10 months, perhaps proud of the check. But in 10 years, missing those moments would sting far more.
I declined, and the framework helped me prioritize what actually matters over fleeting ego boosts. It grounds emotional impulses in temporal reality, revealing how many “urgent” choices fade quickly.
Combating Biases: Daniel Kahneman’s System 1 and System 2 Thinking
When it comes to cognitive biases, no one has influenced my thinking more than Daniel Kahneman. His work on System 1 (fast, intuitive) and System 2 (slow, analytical) thinking reminds us that most bad calls come from defaulting to quick gut reactions under stress.
I once rushed a hiring decision based on a charismatic interview, ignoring subtle red flags, because my System 1 loved the energy.
The hire flamed out spectacularly. Now, I force a System 2 pause on key people’s decisions, often using a quick pre-mortem: assume the decision fails—what went wrong? This simple flip exposes risks I would otherwise miss, turning overconfidence into cautious realism. Kahneman’s insight forces a deliberate slowdown exactly when instinct pushes for speed.
Structuring Team Decisions: The SPADE Framework
In team settings, where egos and misalignment can derail even smart groups, structured processes matter immensely. I’ve leaned on frameworks like SPADE (Setting, People, Alternatives, Decide, Explain), developed at Square, to bring clarity without endless meetings.
It assigns clear roles, rigorously explores options, and documents the rationale. During a tense strategy pivot for a client, we used a similar approach to avoid groupthink. One executive pushed a pet project, but laying out alternatives forced honest debate.
The final call wasn’t unanimous, but everyone understood why, reducing second-guessing later. SPADE replaces vague consensus with accountable clarity, especially valuable in fast-moving environments.
Embracing Truth in Uncertainty: Ray Dalio’s Radical Transparency and Believability-Weighted Decisions
Ray Dalio’s principles from Bridgewater also shaped how I handle uncertainty. His emphasis on radical transparency and believability-weighted decision-making encourages weighting input by track record rather than title.
In one advisory engagement, a junior analyst spotted a flaw in our financial model that senior partners overlooked. Dalio’s lens gave me permission to elevate that voice, averting a costly error. It feels uncomfortable at first, challenging hierarchy, but it surfaces the truth faster than polite deference ever could. This approach builds cultures where merit, not position, drives outcomes.
These frameworks don’t eliminate uncertainty. Life and business are messy. I’ve still made plenty of mistakes even using them, from underestimating emotional fallout to over-relying on data when intuition screamed otherwise. The nuance is knowing when to apply which tool.
For reversible, low-stakes choices, speed trumps perfection. For irreversible ones with long tails, slow down and layer multiple lenses. And always, check your own biases, because the biggest blind spot is usually the person in the mirror.
The payoff isn’t flawless decisions. It’s fewer nights staring at the ceiling, more trust in your process, and outcomes that compound over time. In a world drowning in noise, these mental tools from experts who’ve been there offer something rare: a way to think more clearly, act surer, and live with less regret.
